San Francisco has a lot of open office space. The COVID reckoning hasn't begun in earnest yet.

As we outlined yesterday, there is over 17 million square feet of vacant office space now spread across San Francisco, which is up from around 16 million square feet of vacant space three months ago and as compared to under 5 million square feet of vacant space at the start of last year.

For context, the 1,070-foot-tall Salesforce/Transbay tower at First and Mission, which is the tallest building in San Francisco, contains 1.35 million square feet of office space spread across 59 floors.

Salesforce-Tower-Equivalency-17M-Square-Feet-600.png

A commenter named Dave provides this analysis:

This begs the question - what to do with all that empty office space. The average annual net absorption for the boom decade just ended was what? About 1.5 million feet? It would take 11 years at that absorption pace to fill the space. However, going forward it's hard to see SF ever averaging that kind of net absorption again over a prolonged period. So it could take decades to fill the 17 million feet of empty space.

This does not bode well for the owners of these buildings - generally. Some of the space can be converted to life sciences or residential. But most of it cannot. Already the Oceanwide development has been abandoned as has 88 Bluxome - and the to follow second phase.

Mission Rock is going forward but it had already started construction and it was early enough to tweak the design and make that space aimed towards life-science tenants. Dropbox abandoned its SF headquarters but that building(s) had been designed to accommodate life science space and a small potion of DropBox's sublease was picked up by a life science company. Life science may be the only option for major new SF "office" development Hence the Power Plant project is now planned/designed as life science space.

In terms of the life sciences and biotech SF is at a disadvantage both to SSF/the Peninsula and Berkeley/Emeryville/Oakland - the latter cities are making a big play to attract life science/biotech firms. SF needs to not only clean itself up but change its business tax policy if it hopes to capture even a small portion of the life science/biotech play.

The only office development that might pan out in SF is small, boutique projects. 50K or so Hence the Union Square condo conversion will include a small amount of said boutique office space.

As to large office developments (like the still empty 3M tower) not only is there not a need/demand for more space, there is no way to determine the potential price/square foot that future space might command. Today it's $73.24 but how long before landlords losing significant amounts of money on these empty towers make large cuts in the asking price per square foot? Meaning future projects could actually be financially untenable if rents take a big hit.


My family has been using an Nvidia Shield TV on our main television for a few years. We paid around $200 for the device and have been generally pleased with it until now. A recent software update has inserted unavoidable ads onto the home screen that occupy half the screen. The ads are for shows and products on services we don't subscribe to, and what's worse, the ads themselves contain not-safe-for-work content that I don't want my children exposed to.

Many users are upset by the software update, and Nvidia support is looking into it.

We are getting a lot of user complaining that they do no like it and need to be removed. We have already escalated to the the developers team and they are working on this as soon as possible. Kindly accept our sincere apologies for the inconvenience you may have experienced.

I've updated my review of the Shield on Amazon to one star. If these are are removed I will update my Amazon review and this post.


California is paying more than $2 million dollars to settle two cases in which the state infringed on the right to worship freely while favoring "essential businesses" -- i.e., giant corporations.

The State of California has agreed to pay more than $2 million to a San Diego church and a Catholic priest who challenged Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom's unconstitutional COVID-19 lockdown restrictions, which violated the Christian leaders' religious freedom. In two separate settlements, the state agreed to pay $1.6 million to South Bay United Pentecostal Church and $550,000 to Catholic Priest Father Trevor Burfitt. Judges also granted permanent injunctions to protect their religious freedom rights. ...

"Restrictions on churches cannot be more severe than restrictions on retail. We are pleased with the final results in these two important cases," Paul Jonna, another South Bay lawyer, added.

Many people are actively hostile towards religious believers and searching for ways to use government power to persecute them. This should be no surprise to Christians. Near the beginning of the Sermon on the Mount Jesus told his audience:

Matthew 5:10-12

10 Blessed are those who are persecuted because of righteousness, for theirs is the kingdom of heaven.

11 Blessed are you when people insult you, persecute you and falsely say all kinds of evil against you because of me.

12 Rejoice and be glad, because great is your reward in heaven, for in the same way they persecuted the prophets who were before you.

Christians are commanded to pray for all our leaders, that they would come to Christ and that they would lead our country in a way that promotes peace.


Don't miss the significance of Facebook's humiliating free speech disaster just because Politico tries to minimize it by calling it a "policy tweak". The point isn't merely that Facebook and many "experts" were wrong, the point is that the only way to discover truth is through speech. When we limit free speech we cripple our ability to find the truth.

Some people are ascribing political motivations to Facebook's censorship.

While it is welcome news that Facebook has reversed its policy, perhaps the bigger issue here is that Facebook's policy was wrong. Not just because it was incorrect but because Facebook shouldn't be in the business of curating content and making decisions as to what people can and cannot read. This reversal is an indictment of Facebook's entire content-moderation effort, which they say is meant to curb the spread of fake news when, in actuality, it was meant to curb inconvenient news.

This is a pretty easy hypothesis to test. What proportion of Facebook speech restrictions limit left-wing talking points as compared to right-wing talking points? I don't know the answer, but I can guess.


Jonathan Turley is right to say the Colonial Pipeline cyber attack was terrorism but it was also worse than that: the attack was a probe that further revealed the weakness of America's critical infrastructure.

We've heard calls in recent years for an ever-widening category of "terrorists" to encompass groups from the Jan. 6 rioters to antifa to the the Ku Klux Klan. So it is surprising that the White House and the media have referred to the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attackers simply as "hackers." "DarkSide" is not just a collection of hackers -- it's a group of terrorists. And the only thing more concerning than the failure to label them correctly is the possible reason for not doing so. ...

The reason is obvious: Colonial just paid a ransom to terrorists. Moreover, gas pipelines are not just "a private company" but a highly regulated industry that closely follows the government's directions.

If it's not possible for the government to protect American infrastructure from cyber attacks then we need to significantly overhaul our national security system.

It may be true that the Biden administration concluded we are defenseless to cyber terrorism despite years of ransomware attacks and hundreds of billions of dollars in cybersecurity programs. If that is the case, the public should be informed. The failure of Congress and our government to defend against such terror attacks is a national security failure of breathtaking proportions. The Colonial Pipeline attack was the cyber equivalent of Pearl Harbor. In both cases, we were caught unprepared and unable to deal with a threat we knew was coming. Yet President Roosevelt did not issue a "no comment" on the critical facts after the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941. Back then, we believed FDR when he stated in his first inauguration that "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself."

What the Biden administration seems to fear most is public recognition that it is afraid -- afraid of the vulnerability of our infrastructure, afraid that the public will learn what cyber terrorists already know.

Maybe America has been distracted by nonsense for a while and needs to refocus our attention on real problems.


A bunch of retired generals and admirals have written an open letter advocating for election integrity, along with a bunch of other rightist political preferences and talking points.

I have a lot of respect for our military, active duty and retired, but I think it would be best for America if our military didn't leverage its rightful prestige to influence politics.

Maybe things are "so bad" that it's justified now, and each person is free to make that determination for himself or herself.


This failure of accounting is a humiliating disaster for California.

It's been 21 months since we asked California to do what 49 other states, the federal government, and hundreds of America's largest cities do: produce a line-by-line state checkbook of its spending.

California Controller Betty Yee denied the request from our auditors at OpenTheBooks.com for its spending records, claiming she could not "locate" the records.

So we sued the State of California to get the records that are legally required to be made available to anyone who requests them.

Our initial request on Aug. 23, 2019 was ignored, and follow-up letters in October and November were finally acknowledged - 11 weeks after the first request, a violation of state open records law.

Our request was later denied, with Yee saying that they were "unable to locate" the evidence of payments that her office made and that it did not track payments that went through other state offices.

In 2018, Yee's office paid 49 million bills totaling $320 billion in payments. While she made the payments, she claims she cannot track the payments.

Somehow I doubt California would be very understanding to a taxpayer who couldn't "locate" any financial records when requested.

This failure of one of the most the basic functions of government is embarrassing beyond words.


Unfortunately for everyone, America's bureaucrats have squandered the broad and deep trust that Americans used to give them without question. Now some people are even questioning something as (apparently) simple as the census. "Why Did Biden Census Bureau Add 2.5 Million More Residents to Blue-State Population Count?"

There is something very fishy about the new 2020 Census Bureau data determining which states picked up seats and which states lost seats.

Most all of the revisions to the original estimates have moved in one direction: Population gains were added to blue states, and population losses were subtracted from red states. The December revisions in population estimates under the Biden Census Bureau added some 2.5 million blue-state residents and subtracted more than 500,000 red-state residents. These population estimates determine how many electoral votes each state receives for presidential elections and the number of congressional seats in each state. ...

Remember, the House of Representatives is razor-thin today, with the Democrats sporting just a six-seat majority with five seats currently vacant. So, a switch in a handful of seats in 2022 elections could flip the House and take the gavel away from current Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats. A shift of 3 million in population is the equivalent of four seats moving from Republican to Democrat.

When all the "mistakes" favor the same group of people, which also happens to be the group in power, it's very reasonable for citizens to wonder if the "mistakes" are honest or not.


Does President Biden think the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence racist?

QUESTION, NEWSMAX: Thanks, Jen. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, talking to a group on Wednesday said that white--essentially said that white supremacy is woven into our founding documents and principals. This statement is getting widely criticized as essentially parroting Chinese Communist Party talking points. So is the president going to remove her from her position as the representative before that body to promote United States values?

JEN PSAKI, WHITE HOUSE: Is the president going to remove an African American woman with decades of experience in the foreign service who is widely respected from her position as ambassador from the UN? He is not. He will--he is proud to have her in that position. She is not only qualified. He believes she is exactly the right person in that role at this moment in time.

I have not seen her comments. I will say that there's no question that there has been a history of institutional racism in this country. And that doesn't require the UN ambassador to confirm that.

QUESTION: So that's essentially the same lecture, though, that the Chinese delegation gave Secretary Blinken in Alaska last month. So does the President think our founding documents are racist?

PSAKI: I would say that I will--I will leave my comments to speak for themselves. And certainly, I think most people recognize the history of systemic racism in our country. And she was speaking to that.

Do Psaki's comments speak for themselves? I think so.


This latest poll by Rasmussen about election integrity is pretty interesting. (Do we care about polls anymore? They seem pretty bad, but what alternative is there?)

Majorities of all racial groups - 59% of whites, 56% of Blacks and 63% of other minority voters - say it is more important to make sure there is no cheating in elections than to make it easier to vote.

Likewise, majorities of all racial groups - 64% of whites, 59% of Blacks and 58% of other minority voters - reject the claim that voter ID laws discriminate against some voters.

No matter how you slice up the population, majorities support election integrity. That's good for America. No matter what policies you support, all Americans should support free and fair elections that get the results right. Otherwise we're not even a republic anymore -- we're governed by the people who count the votes.

Oh wait, there is one slice of the electorate that doesn't prioritize election integrity. Guess who?

President Biden's strongest supporters are least likely to say preventing cheating in elections is a higher priority. Among voters who strongly approve of Biden's job performance as president, just 17% say it's more important to make sure there is no cheating in elections than to make it easier to vote. By contrast, among voters who strongly disapprove of Biden's performance, 79% say it's more important to prevent cheating.

Presumably Biden's strongest supporters don't believe there was significant election fraud in the 2020 election, so maybe they don't support additional effort put towards election integrity because they don't think it's needed.

But election integrity is really a no-lose issue. You literally can't make an election too secure, as long as we define "secure" to mean that every eligible voter can vote exactly once, and no one else can vote at all. With all the boondoggles America spends money on, it's hard to imagine a more useful place to overspend.


Is President Biden planning to increase taxes retroactively?

As lawmakers consider the magnitude of tax increases, taxpayers may wonder whether those increases will be retroactive not only to the date of the bill's introduction, but to the beginning of 2021. This is an important and interesting question: Can tax legislative increases be retroactive?

Under conventional wisdom, the answer is no. Taxpayers should be able to rely on the existing rules; otherwise, the government's pursuit of short-term revenue could create a sense of unfairness and animosity toward the system.

In reality, however, the answer is yes. Tax increases can be retroactive, and not just to the current year.

Why not retroactively raise taxes all the way back to 2017 when Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act?

And why even stop there? California wants to tax your future too, even after you leave the state.

Knowing about the huge outbound migration from California, Cavuto asked what would happen to wealthy people who move out of state. Bonta said tax "avoidance" would not be allowed as California would tax them for the next ten years, despite what state they live in. Bonta said that because they accrued the wealth in California, the state can continue to legally tax it.

Like bank robbers, taxers have to "go where when the money is". If the present is all tapped out, tax the past and future.


This isn't rocket science: if you're the censor, you're the bad guy. If you're burning books, you're the bad guy. If you ban music and dancing, you're the bad guy. If you ban the former president, you're the bad guy.

Facebook removed an interview with former President Donald Trump conducted by his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, from her Facebook page Tuesday night, citing content policy. ...

"In line with the block we placed on Donald Trump's Facebook and Instagram accounts, further content posted in the voice of Donald Trump will be removed and result in additional limitations on the accounts," the email read following a notice that the video had been removed.

The solution to bad speech is good speech, not banning. Banning never works.

Maybe part of the problem is that Trump's opponents aren't very appealing. Instead of improving themselves (which would benefit all Americans), they want to silence the opposition.

biden dislikes.jpg

But seriously, when you're this unpopular, what do you do?

Easy answer, guys: you cover it up.

Hit up your boys over at Google like brah, do me a solid here, I look like a bozo.

Well, certainly YouTube cannot make it so Joe Biden isn't a bozo.

But here's something they can do:

youtube dislikes.jpg

Is YouTube hiding dislikes to help Joe Biden? Maybe the timing is a total coincidence. You be the judge.


The global pandemic lock-down is starting to look like one of the worst public health decisions in history. A year ago everyone was scared and no one knew what would happen -- but time has now revealed which leaders made good choices and which didn't. It's not random.

Even some Florida Democrats are wondering whether Gov. Ron DeSantis' widely panned COVID response might turn out to be right, Axios Tampa Bay's Ben Montgomery and Selene San Felice write.

More than 32,000 Floridians have died, a number the state's leaders rarely acknowledge. But the death rate is no worse than the national average -- and better than some states with tighter restrictions.

The L.A. Times compared Florida and California:

"California imposed myriad restrictions that battered the economy ... Florida adopted a more laissez-faire approach decried by public health experts -- allowing indoor restaurant dining, leaving masks optional."

On Sunday's front page, the N.Y. Times explored the positives -- from the sizzling real-estate market to Florida's low unemployment rate -- of an early reopening: "Much of the state has a boomtown feel."

Florida's unemployment rate is 5.1%, compared to 9.3% in California, 8.7% in New York and 6.9% in Texas, The Times notes.

The bottom line: "Despite their differing approaches," AP reports, "California and Florida have experienced almost identical outcomes in COVID-19 case rates."


Glenn Greenwald explains how media outlets "independently confirm" each others' falsehoods. It is shocking that an entire industry could so utterly humiliate itself so quickly. What American institutions are actually excellent these days?

All of this prompted the obvious question: how could MSNBC and CBS News have both purported to "independently confirm" a CNN bombshell that was completely false? The reason this matters is because the term "independently confirm" significantly bolsters the credibility of the initial report because it makes it appear that other credible-to-some news organizations have conducted their own investigation and found more evidence that proves it is true. That is the purpose of the exercise: to bolster the credibility of the story in the minds of the public.

But what actually happens is as deceitful as it is obvious. When a news outlet such as NBC News claims to have "independently corroborated" a report from another corporate outlet, they often do not mean that they searched for and acquired corroborating evidence for it. What they mean is much more tawdry: they called, or were called by, the same anonymous sources that fed CNN the false story in the first place, and were fed the same false story. And just as CNN did -- repeated what they were told (almost certainly by Democratic Congressional members and/or their staff) without independently investigating it, because they knew any anti-Trump story would please their partisan audience -- NBC News pretended they had obtained "independent confirmation" when all they had done was speak to the same sources that fed CNN.

This episode is so worth recalling not only because it is one of the most stunning and pathetic media humiliations of the Trump era -- though it is that -- but also because the shoddy tactic that drove it is still in full use by the same media outlets. We just saw proof of that again with a major Washington Post "correction" -- which should be called a retraction -- of one of the most-discussed news stories of the last six months: the Post's claims about what Trump said when he called a Georgia election official while he was still contesting the 2020 election results.


I've written about class recently, and Astral Codex Ten has pulled together a bunch of class-related suggestions for the Republicans that are very intriguing.

Trump didn't win on a platform of capitalism and liberty and whatever. He won on a platform of being anti-establishment. But which establishment? Not rich people. Trump is rich, lots of his Cabinet picks were rich, practically the first thing he did was cut taxes on the rich. Some people thought that contradicted his anti-establishment message, but those people were wrong. Powerful people? Getting warmer, but Mike Pence is a powerful person and Trump wasn't against Mike Pence. Smart people? Now you're burning hot.

Trump stood against the upper class. He might define them as: people who live in nice apartments in Manhattan or SF or DC and laugh under their breath if anybody comes from Akron or Tampa. Who eat Thai food and Ethiopian food and anything fusion, think they would gain 200 lbs if they ever stepped in a McDonalds, and won't even speak the name Chick-Fil-A. Who usually go to Ivy League colleges, though Amherst or Berkeley is acceptable if absolutely necessary. Who conspicuously love Broadway (especially Hamilton), LGBT, education, "expertise", mass transit, and foreign anything. They conspicuously hate NASCAR, wrestling, football, "fast food", SUVs, FOX, guns, the South, evangelicals, and reality TV. Who would never get married before age 25 and have cutesy pins about how cats are better than children. Who get jobs in journalism, academia, government, consulting, or anything else with no time-card where you never have to use your hands. Who all have exactly the same political and aesthetic opinions on everything, and think the noblest and most important task imaginable is to gatekeep information in ways that force everyone else to share those opinions too.

The parties are realigning. It's political musical chairs, and some people who are used to sitting in thrones may get stuck with footstools. How can you tell who is most likely to be left without a good seat? Check who is angriest. Then assume that no matter what they say they're mad about, they're actually upset and frightened at the prospect of losing status and power.


Yes, you can still get COVID-19 and get very sick or die, but cases are down 77% over the past six weeks and it looks like the pandemic is basically over. The disease will never disappear completely, but we should be able to return to normal soon.

Amid the dire Covid warnings, one crucial fact has been largely ignored: Cases are down 77% over the past six weeks. If a medication slashed cases by 77%, we'd call it a miracle pill. Why is the number of cases plummeting much faster than experts predicted?

In large part because natural immunity from prior infection is far more common than can be measured by testing. Testing has been capturing only from 10% to 25% of infections, depending on when during the pandemic someone got the virus. Applying a time-weighted case capture average of 1 in 6.5 to the cumulative 28 million confirmed cases would mean about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.

Now add people getting vaccinated. As of this week, 15% of Americans have received the vaccine, and the figure is rising fast. Former Food and Drug Commissioner Scott Gottlieb estimates 250 million doses will have been delivered to some 150 million people by the end of March.

There is reason to think the country is racing toward an extremely low level of infection. As more people have been infected, most of whom have mild or no symptoms, there are fewer Americans left to be infected. At the current trajectory, I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.


If this was published on some far-right website I'd never read it or comment on it. But Lefty Time Magazine reveals the "shadow campaign that saved the 2020 election". The article spins the conspirators as heroes, but if you look past the leftward slant it seems like Time is confirming most of the Populist Right's craziest accusations. The bipartisan globalist establishment crushed the populist political uprising.

Personally, I don't believe all the claims in this article -- I think some political operatives are trying to burnish their resumes by claiming credit for this boondoggle election. But still, this is an insane revelation from a Lefty publication.

The handshake between business and labor was just one component of a vast, cross-partisan campaign to protect the election-an extraordinary shadow effort dedicated not to winning the vote but to ensuring it would be free and fair, credible and uncorrupted. For more than a year, a loosely organized coalition of operatives scrambled to shore up America's institutions as they came under simultaneous attack from a remorseless pandemic and an autocratically inclined President. Though much of this activity took place on the left, it was separate from the Biden campaign and crossed ideological lines, with crucial contributions by nonpartisan and conservative actors. The scenario the shadow campaigners were desperate to stop was not a Trump victory. It was an election so calamitous that no result could be discerned at all, a failure of the central act of democratic self-governance that has been a hallmark of America since its founding.

Their work touched every aspect of the election. They got states to change voting systems and laws and helped secure hundreds of millions in public and private funding. They fended off voter-suppression lawsuits, recruited armies of poll workers and got millions of people to vote by mail for the first time. They successfully pressured social media companies to take a harder line against disinformation and used data-driven strategies to fight viral smears. They executed national public-awareness campaigns that helped Americans understand how the vote count would unfold over days or weeks, preventing Trump's conspiracy theories and false claims of victory from getting more traction. After Election Day, they monitored every pressure point to ensure that Trump could not overturn the result. "The untold story of the election is the thousands of people of both parties who accomplished the triumph of American democracy at its very foundation," says Norm Eisen, a prominent lawyer and former Obama Administration official who recruited Republicans and Democrats to the board of the Voter Protection Program.

The bolding above is mine. Obviously this shadowy cabal of establishmentarians was completely neutral and didn't care if Trump or Biden won. Totally.

So why is this "secret history" being revealed now that Biden has been inaugurated? For our benefit! Or maybe because the participants want some credit.

That's why the participants want the secret history of the 2020 election told, even though it sounds like a paranoid fever dream-a well-funded cabal of powerful people, ranging across industries and ideologies, working together behind the scenes to influence perceptions, change rules and laws, steer media coverage and control the flow of information. They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it.

The election wasn't "rigged" -- it was "fortified"!

Eamon Javers is right that the r/WallStreetBets and GME battle is the latest round of the class war. Just like Trump, GME is an effect not a cause of the ongoing disruption of America's class system.

Josh Holmes spent much of Wednesday in Washington watching the populist uprising over GameStop in the stock market with fascination - and a growing sense of familiarity.

He has seen this movie before.

Holmes, president of the issue management firm Cavalry, is best known as the former chief of staff to former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Holmes has spent his career among the Republican establishment, which has spent the past five years getting steamrolled by the populist force of Trumpism - a grassroots movement that stormed the ramparts of the GOP, ousted the establishment and remade the party in its image.

Almost no one in the party saw it coming. When it did, few of the establishment players understood just how vast the force was that suddenly lined up against them.

On Wednesday morning, as GameStop shares continued to surge, Holmes took to Twitter and typed out a simple message: "Wall Street, welcome to our world."

Trump didn't cause the political realignment he benefited from -- he was just willing to ride it faster and harder than anyone else. Trump was an effect. Similarly, the self-described "retards" and "smooth brains" at r/WallStreetBets didn't cause the resentment between hedge funds and retail investors. The GME squeeze is yet another manifestation of the class war.

The old coalitions were (broadly) centralization/populist Left and Democrat vs. liberty/elitist Right and Republican. If the realignment continues, the new coalitions will be liberty/populist Right and Republican vs. centralization/elitist Left and Democrat. Basically, the populists and elites are swapping sides. Of course each individual is more than a simple category, which is why so many people feel "politically homeless" right now.

The parties are also in flux because they aren't sure what combination of positions will yield a winning coalition. The Left seems to be exerting itself to enforce uniformity on its members, while the Right seems to be opening itself up to socially-liberal libertarians and populists. Who knows how this will shake out.

Screenshot_20210123-085858_Brave.jpg

From Drew Holden.


Nathanael Blake writes that America's problems are due in part to the millions of ghosts in the cradle that haunt us.

The corruption of abortion goes far beyond unpalatable political choices, however; making abortion-on-demand part of the culture changes the culture. Its evil effects are systemic, as well as individual, and they do not end with the violent killing of the unborn.

Our nation is haunted by what abortion does to the living. Trying to solve our problems by killing developing human beings makes us worse, individually and socially. If elective abortion seems necessary, it is because our sexual appetites exceed our willingness to care for the children who are the natural result of sex. Elective abortion is a violent form of birth control, which is used either instead of, or as a backup to, the proliferating array of modern contraceptives.

Abortion thus damages the fundamental relationships of our humanity, shattering the primeval union of mother, father, and child. Instead of the family solidarity that is foundational to human society, the begetting and bearing of new human life become a battleground of competing interests.

Pray for the unborn. Pray for America. Pray for mercy and not justice; justice would destroy us all.

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